The Environment in Your Area - A Fictional Vision of the Future

By the end of this century, the average yearly temperature of the UK could be between 1-4.5ºC hotter than today.  The land will heat up faster than the sea and the South East more than the North West.

There is potential for a huge increase in the growing season, as much as an extra 100 days a year.

By the end of the century, we could be facing far worse heat waves reaching up to the mid 40ºC in some places.  As summers become hotter and drier, drought could become a major threat. 

In the hot summer of 2003, all snow completely disappeared from Scotland, only the fourth time this has happened in recorded history.

Across the UK, snow has dwindled over the past 20 years and in the future could become so rare that many regions could have long runs of snowless winters.

Looking at seasonal rainfall trends, winters have never been so wet compared to summers and rain in winter is falling in longer, heavier bouts.  Some lasting five days or more.

The outlook is for continued wetter winters with an increase in rain of more than 30% in the worst case scenarios by the 2080’s.  Such a dramatic increase is greater than what we would expect from natural variability in climate.

Eastern and southern regions can expect the biggest changes in rainfall; North West Scotland will see the least.

It is difficult to predict how wind will change, but more frequent and intense winter storms may be expected.  Southern and central UK in particular may experience stormier and windier conditions in winter.

Scotland

Mountain birds like ptarmigan, dotterel and Snow bunting and alpine plants such as subarctic willows, could come under threat of extinction from rising temperatures.  Heather moors and forests could be threatened by wildfires as springs grow drier.  The lack of snow could wipe out the ski industry within 20 years.  The multi-million pound Scottish seed potato industry could face ruin from warmer winters, allowing in aphids carrying viruses.

North East

The balmy weather of the Cornish Riviera could reach Durham by the 2050’s.  Garden snowdrops in Northumberland are now flowering about three weeks earlier.  Wildlife is also changing, and since the 1970’s the Comma butterfly has expanded its range northwards into the North East.  Between 1900 and 2000 the North Shields tide gauge recorded a sea level rise of approximately 20cm, and as the seas grow higher, coastal erosion will worsen.  Already beaches such as at Alnmouth, Northumberland are disappearing.

North West

Warming is already underway as shown by the lack of winter ice on the surface of Lake Windermere.  Two rare cold-loving Arctic fish, the Vendace and Shelley, of the Lake District are also disappearing.  Most of the North West’s coast is low-lying and sea level rises of up to 69cm by 2080 will result in a greatly increased flood risk.  The threat of tidal surges reaching danger levels could treble over the next 50 years and could be made worse by higher waves whipped up by stronger winds.

Yorkshire & Humber

The warming trend is already encouraging changes, with the Speckled Wood butterfly pushing northwards and an increased invasion of bracken being forecast.  Heathlands and moorlands will grow dry in summer and wildfires will be a serious risk.  Milder winters could pose a threat for Yorkshire’s rhubarb industry as the crop needs cold winter spells to succeed.  The threats of drought and flooding could also put York Minster and its cathedral at risk.

East Midlands

Climate change raises fear of new crop pests such as the Colorado Beetle, but the countryside could also see new crops such as sunflowers, grain maize and Navy beans (used for baked beans), livestock could also suffer stress in the heat.  The biggest threat could be flooding, possibly accompanied by storm surges which could lead to flooding and increased erosion of cliffs and sea walls.

West Midlands

The West Midlands is at the heart of the national transport systems.  Higher winter rainfall could increase the risk of flooding on railways and on poorly drained roads and runways.  Parts of the West Midlands are among the driest in England, so for the farming community a reduction in summer rainfall could mean that water for spraying, irrigation and livestock is restricted during drier summers.

Wales

The mountains in Wales could see unprecedented changes as a result of rising temperatures with far less snow, fewer alpine plants and footpath erosion from heavy rains.  Forests could be damaged by more storms and pests such as the spruce aphid may survive better over warmer winters.  The higher temperatures could encourage a move from livestock to arable farming and a change in the crops grown.

East of England

A substantial amount of the region is below sea level and it may face a huge flooding threat from rising sea levels.  There is also a growing risk of flooding from rivers as winter rainfalls grow heavier and more intense.  At the other extreme, East Anglia is the driest region of the UK with most of the best agricultural land.  Drier summers could turn the land into a dustbowl unless more irrigation is used.

London

Heat could reach crisis proportions in London.  By the end of the century, summers could be as hot as those of present day New York creating unbearable conditions.  Its position on the edge of the Thames estuary makes London highly exposed to sea level rises.  By 2050 the city could need major new flood defences.  Smog could grow unbearable.  Intense rainfalls also pose another threat, recent summer flash floods overpowered the sewer, drain and underground train systems.

South West

Cornwall could start to resemble today’s south of France.  Sub-tropical palm trees could grow in baking hot summers and winters will have almost non-existent frost or snow.  The countryside could be carpeted in continental crops such as sunflowers and sweetcorn, but summer droughts remain a possibility.  Intense bursts of rain in summer and winter threaten flash floods as well as landslides and river flooding.

South East

The South East may warm up more rapidly than anywhere else in the UK and feel more like the Continent.  The summers may be too hot and dry for oak and beech woodlands and water meadows and heaths could turn into tinderboxes.  The region could also see the highest rises in sea levels of the UK because of its geology and climate.  Coupled with storm surges, they could erode beaches, cliffs and low-lying land.

Northern Ireland

Farming is Northern Ireland’s most important industry.  Farm land in western parts may become so wet and waterlogged in winter that traditional grassland farming becomes more marginal, perhaps leading to a move towards forestry.  In the south of the country, introduced tree species, such as the sycamore are likely to flourish in a milder, less extreme environment than natives such as oak or ash.  The rains will help feed the vitally important boglands of Northern Ireland, some of the finest peatbogs in the world and a major carbon “sink” for keeping carbon dioxide locked away out of the atmosphere.